By SALINA POST
Salina and much of Kansas continue to face persistent drought conditions. With winter just around the corner, National Weather Service (NWS) Meteorologist James Cuellar explained that the ongoing transition to La Niña is likely to bring drier-than-normal conditions through the fall, winter, and even early spring.
"There's a couple of other climate oscillations that are also occurring out there in the Pacific Ocean, like sea surface temperature variability out there that can influence weather here," Cuellar said. "Not just La Nina, but there's also a couple of others, and pretty much they all point to a drier than normal fall, winter and probably early spring for much, much of the central portions of the country."
According to the NWS, La Niña is likely to develop between September and November 2024, with a 71% chance, and continue through January to March 2025.
In August 2024, conditions in the Pacific Ocean remained neutral, with sea surface temperatures close to average. Wind patterns and temperature measurements suggest that La Niña is forming, but it is expected to be weak and short-lived.
Current forecasts, based on models, predict this La Niña will be less intense, meaning it may not have the typical strong winter effects. However, it could still influence seasonal weather predictions.
Cuellar said precipitation similar to the marginal rain Kansas received in September 2024 is to be expected sparsely throughout the fall.
"We could get some rain events here and there, kind of similar to what we got in the middle of September. Right now things don't particularly look great in terms of eroding our drought conditions," Cuellar said.
Salina is currently experiencing an eight-inch precipitation deficit for the year, and drought conditions are expected to worsen. The effects of the drought can also be seen in extreme temperature swings.
"Typically, whenever it's drier, it's a lot easier to get pretty big temperature swings," Cuellar said. "If we were to have a little more moisture in the ground, it would be a lot more difficult for us to dry out during the day.
September temperatures were mostly above average across central, south-central, and southeast Kansas. Despite this, many recorded their coolest September since 2020. Wichita experienced both a record high of 102 degrees and much cooler temperatures dropping to 52 degrees on September 25.
"In 2021 we had a somewhat wet beginning of the summer and then it fell off in the wintertime. Then in 2022 we actually got really, really wet spring, which was one of the wettest Mays on record, but then the tap immediately shut off again," Cuellar said. "And ever since the summer of 2022 we just really haven't seen precipitation. Even if we do have above-average precipitation month, it just hasn't been nearly enough to make up the deficits that we build-up."
While drought conditions have not yet escalated the risk of wildfires in the area, Cuellar cautioned that an early freeze followed by a return to warm, dry conditions could increase fire weather potential later in the season. For now, the vegetation has retained enough moisture to prevent significant wildfire risk.