Spring ahead of schedule in Kansas — climatologists uncertain for severe weather season

The seasonal precipitation outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, for March, April and May. <b>Graphic courtesy NOAA Climate Prediction Center</b> — The seasonal precipitation outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, for March, April and May. **Graphic courtesy NOAA Climate Prediction Center**

By OLIVIA BERGMEIER
Salina Post

Most Kansans understand that March usually brings spring closer to the end of the month, but with record-setting warm temperatures in February, spring has arrived for most residents.

Climatologists in and around Kansas also agree that this year is different for most of the country, with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, cycle transitioning throughout spring and into summer.

The ENSO cycle has two phases that impact sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean — El Niño, the ENSO warm phase, and La Niña, the ENSO cold phase.

The cycle transitioned from a three-year intense La Niña phase into a robust El Niño late last year, but climatologists see a transition to a neutral phase into a La Niña for the summer.

"This winter played out like a classic El Niño. We were much above normal [temperatures] and had above-normal precipitation—that's the hallmark of El Niño," said K-State Research and Extension Assistant State Climatologist Matthew Sittel. The problem this time of year is that the signal is less obvious."

The Kansas Drought monitor from February 27, 2024. Graphic courtesy U.S. Drought Monitor

Salina broke an 1896 record on Feb. 26, with the Salina Regional Airport reporting 78 degrees in the afternoon. The drought also improved, with many areas of western Kansas seeing soaking rainfall and inches of snow throughout the 2023-2024 winter.

ENSO cycles impact Kansas the most in winter, so as spring rolls into summer and El Niño switches to neutral and later to La Niña, its effects will not be as noticeable.

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As the cycle transitions through the front half of 2024, Kansas weather will still see some impacts, particularly during the severe weather season.

"Coming out of El Niño, going into neutral, especially heading into severe weather season, it can create some uncertainty," said High Plains Regional Climate Center Climatologist Gannon Rush. "I looked up some literature about scenarios like this where it's transitioning from one to the neutral back to the other, and it did hint toward a not stronger, but more active severe season, particularly for hail and tornadoes."

Though past years with similar conditions saw more intense storm seasons, more tornadoes and hail are never guaranteed.

The seasonal temperature outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, for March, April and May. <b>Graphic courtesy NOAA Climate Prediction Center</b> — The seasonal temperature outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, for March, April and May. **Graphic courtesy NOAA Climate Prediction Center**

Wichita National Weather Service, or NWS, Meteorologist Robb Lawson said Kansas will see severe weather regardless of the ENSO cycle. Still, while the La Niña cycle held in the Pacific, Kansas saw a below-normal rate of tornadoes in the last several years.

"Some areas of the country get more active in a given year, and it just moves around," Lawson said. "Eventually, it will return to where we're going to be above normal for tornadoes. It's been relatively quiet for the last several years, but eventually, it will change, and we don't know when."

Meteorologists focus primarily on short weather outlooks, air moisture levels, wind speeds, and atmospheric instability. These factors impact weather forecasts and change regularly in the days leading up to a significant weather event.

Beyond severe weather

Rush said many climate predictions see chances for above-normal precipitation in Kansas for the beginning of spring from March to early or mid-April.

However, late spring and early summer are less promising for precipitation in the state. Many climate models show a toss-up in the early summertime for rainfall, and when La Niña takes over, it will likely turn dry again for the later half of the year.

"There's not a strong signal on how they affect temperature and precipitation during the summer," Rush said. "As we've seen in the past, the triple dip in La Niña was very dry. The drought was very prevalent in Kansas, specifically in central and western Kansas, and this year it's sort of signaling that kind of return of a pattern which is probably not what people want to hear."

The Spring Leaf Index is based on heat accumulation and may have less relevance in water-limited systems like California and the Southwest. Precipitation may play a larger role in the phenology of plants in these areas. <b>Graphic courtesy National Phenology Network </b> — The Spring Leaf Index is based on heat accumulation and may have less relevance in water-limited systems like California and the Southwest. Precipitation may play a larger role in the phenology of plants in these areas. **Graphic courtesy National Phenology Network**

The recent conditions also have led to an early spring for many states, with the National Phenology Network reporting the earliest spring on record for parts of northern Kansas.

Climatologists from around the globe work to gather data for varying models, but none are entirely accurate in predictions.

Lawson said weather on all scales is unpredictable, but historical data and taking a critical look at weather conditions allow residents to better prepare for dangerous weather situations.