By NATE KING
Salina Post
October brought unusually high temperatures and dry conditions to Salina, with temperatures reaching levels not seen in more than 60 years.
According to the National Weather Service (NWS) in Wichita, Salina recorded an average temperature of 63.5°F in October, a full 6.5 degrees above average. This made it the eighth warmest October since 1900—record highs, including a sweltering 97°F on October 5.
Salina received only 0.99 inches of rain, falling 1.17 inches below average, making it the 29th driest October. This lack of rainfall worsened drought conditions across central Kansas, with parts of Saline County categorized as experiencing severe drought.
Early November rains bring temporary drought relief
The first week of November brought much-needed rainfall to central Kansas, with Salina receiving approximately 1.5-2 inches of rain since the beginning of the month. NWS meteorologist Kevin Dharamfal explained the positive impact of these rains.
“It’s still dry. There are some areas of moderate drought out towards Russell and Great Bend,” Dharamfal said. “In the Salina area, especially along I-135 to Wichita, where we’ve seen severe and even extreme drought in recent months, the situation has gradually improved with these rainfall events.”
Dharamfal cautioned that ongoing precipitation events are crucial for sustained drought recovery. The Cheney Reservoir, a critical water source for Wichita, remains low despite recent rainfall.
“Cheney responded somewhat,” Dharamfal said, “But it’s going to take several more events like this to really add significantly more water to the reservoir.”
The recent rainfall has also lowered the immediate risk of wildfires. Dharamfal noted that cooler November temperatures and frequent rain have “muted” fire hazards for now.
“If we continue to see the cooler temperatures and more frequent precipitation, then it's going to keep the threat for wildfires muted as we go through the rest of the month,” Dharamfal said.
Winter Outlook
Looking ahead, the NWS anticipates that La Niña will shape this winter’s climate. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) gives a 60% chance that La Niña will form between September and November 2024 and continue through at least March 2025. Recent sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific have been near or below average, signaling La Niña’s development.
If this trend continues, Kansas can expect a warmer and drier-than-average winter. Specifically, the CPC forecasts that from November 2024 through January 2025, Kansas will likely experience above-average temperatures, with southwest Kansas seeing below-average precipitation.
This dry winter could mean that Salina’s recent drought relief may be short-lived. Dharamfal warned that if conditions dry out, the moisture deficit could return by early spring, increasing wildfire risks.
“If we see a warmer, drier winter, as is possible with La Niña, our next potential for a significant wildfire season would be in the spring, before things start to green up,” Dharamfal said.
For Salina, La Niña could lead to limited rain or snowfall through January, which may strain soil moisture and water supplies. While residents can enjoy the current relief from drought, the winter forecast indicates that this moisture respite may not last, as Kansas faces a likely warmer and drier season.
