By OLIVIA BERGMEIER
Salina Post
Frosty weather arrived in Kansas in the middle of fall, but with an El Niño weather pattern secured throughout winter, Kansas may see more snow.
El Niño is a weather event where trade winds weaken over the Pacific Ocean, pushing warm water east toward the west coast of the United States.
The event also pushes the Pacific jet stream to move south of its regular position, causing northern parts of the U.S. to have warmer, drier weather. At the same time, the southern regions receive above-normal precipitation and cooler temperatures.
Kansas often sits in the middle of the cooler, wetter regions and the warmer, drier regions during El Niño events, where equal chances of cooler or warmer weather can happen.
On the Wichita National Weather Service Facebook page, meteorologists Christian Williams and James Cuellar spoke on these topics during a Facebook Live on Friday, Oct. 17.
According to Williams, most of Kansas will see equal chances for above, below or near-average temperatures and precipitation throughout winter.
Even though the state has equal chances on temperatures and precipitation, past El Niño events trend toward an uncommon precipitation pattern.
"El Niño, in general, tends to favor above-normal snowfall for most of the state," Williams said. "That's especially true across the South Central and then central parts."
Williams said that the models produced by the Weather Prediction Center, or WPC, show that most of the state's winter will experience near-normal precipitation outside of snow.
Much of this snowfall will occur in January, February and March rather than late this year.
"There's not really a strong signal for a wetter winter," Williams said. "Once you hit February, March and April, the signal kind of flips, and there's a pretty strong signal for above-normal precipitation."
Data from previous years and current weather patterns power the models produced by the WPC and act as an essential tool for those like Wichita NWS Meteorologist James Cuellar and Williams to use for predictions.
Even with reliable models from the WPC, Cuellar and Williams said the actual weather patterns may turn out different than their predictions.
"While the chances may be more favorable, that doesn't necessarily mean that's exactly what is going to happen," Cuellar said. "But there is increased favorability for this scenario."
Williams said that the Wichita NWS will continue to monitor conditions throughout the season and update as necessary.