By NATE KING
Salina Post
Aspiring and experienced storm spotters, meteorologists, storm chasers and members from the north-central Kansas community gathered at Kansas Wesleyan University on Wednesday to take part in the National Weather Service-Wichita's (NWS-W) 2023 Storm Fury on the Plains presentation.
NWS-Wichita forecaster, Robb Lawson spoke to nearly 100 people in KWU's Sams Hall of Fine Arts, 100 E. Claflin Avenue. Lawson's presentation covered not only basic safety concerns associated with storm spotting, but also the science behind storm systems that make their way through Kansas. Lawson also presented weather statistics from last year's storm season.
2022 storm season
Lawson said the last three years have been "relatively quite." When placed in historic context, the 2020,2021 and 2022 Kansas storm seasons had fewer tornadoes and severe weather incidents.
"Last year, we issued 981 warnings," Lawson said. "That includes severe thunderstorm warnings, flash flood warnings, and tornado warnings. You are probably thinking, 'Wow, that seems like a lot of warnings,' not so much."
Looking back at the 2022 storm season, Lawson said NWS-Wichita issued 376 less warnings than the average number of warnings, 1,204.
"The last three years were the lowest three year warning counts since 1992 to 1994," Lawson said.
Even though the data shows a pattern of quiet severe weather activity, Lawson said it is important to not become complacent.
"In 2020 we [NWS-Wichita] had no tornados, which is pretty insane, something I'd really never thought I'd see in this area of the country," Lawson said.
For the first time since 1950, when detailed tornado records began, a total of zero tornadoes touched down in any of the 26 counties served by the NWS-Wichita office in 2020. On five other occasions a total of two tornadoes in a given year had occurred since 1950 with 1996 being the last.
According to the NWS-Wichita website, since 1996, a total of 640 tornadoes have been recorded, which averages out to almost 28 tornadoes per year over that time frame. This average is quite high considering the average number of tornadoes since 1950 is 18.67; the last 10 year average is 21.4, and the last five-year average is 19.4 tornadoes.
"We've been showing this data for a couple years now even though we notice that it's a quiet year, where we haven't had a lot of severe weather, you can't get complacent. I think last year was a good example of a quiet year where we had tornado go through one of our more populated areas that we cover and that was Andover."
2022 Andover tornado
According to the NWS Wichita, a powerful low-pressure system approached Kansas on April 29, allowing a sharp boundary separating moist and dry air masses, also called a dry line.
Storms first developed across central and northeast Kansas near the warm front, but as the early evening hours continued, a couple storms fired just east of Wichita. One of these storms produced a strong tornado across the east side of Andover, causing extensive damage. This tornado was eventually rated an EF-3. This same storm produced numerous additional tornadoes as it tracked east.
"There is a lot of debate on whether it should have been an EF-4 and it was the consensus to categorize it [the tornado] as an EF-3," Lawson said. "It just didn't hit anything that was built well enough to upgrade it to an EF-4."
Lawson said meteorologists only base EF classification status based on what a tornado comes into contact with. He also said the homes the Andover 2022 tornado destroyed were not sturdy enough structures to upgrade it to an EF-4.
"The Andover tornado was the strongest tornado of 2022," Lawson said. "It was 440 yards wide and it was kind of a little drill bit type thing and it did go through Andover."
The 2022 tornado wasn't Andover's first tornado experience. On April 26, 1991, a string of tornados touched down in Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska and Iowa.
According to NWS-Wichita, the tornado track that hit the Wichita-Andover area in 1991 stretched 46 miles. The tornado had a width between 1/4 to 3/4 mile and swept homes from their foundations west of the Golden Spur Mobile Home Park.
Another tornado hit the Wichita area on April 14, 2012.
"There's definitely something with the east side of Wichita and Andover area where it seems like there's been several tornadoes that have hit that area in the last 20 years or so," Lawson said.
Technology and spotters working together
Even as weather radar technologies improve and become more advanced, the NWS still relies on weather spotters to accurately describe what weather incidents are like on the ground.
"Back in the early 2000s, we would get satellite data about every half hour and we were so excited to get satellite data every half hour," Lawson said. "Now if we position everything right, we can actually get satellite data about every 30 seconds. We have faster radar scanning speeds and we now have dual pol radar. "
Dual pol radar allows radar to transmit and receive pulses in both a horizontal and vertical orientation. As a result, the returning frequencies provide measurements of the horizontal and vertical dimensions and supply forecasters with better estimates of the size, shape, and variety of targets.
Yet even as weather technology breaks new barriers, Lawson said the NWS still needs trained weather spotters.
"We really relied heavily on spotters for the Andover tornado last year," Lawson said. "Let's face it, even with radar data we still can't see what's going on below the cloud base."
Lawson said most tornadic activity is going to occur below the cloud level.
"Radar is a great tool. It's a fantastic tool. But it definitely has limitations. And it will always have limitations. There's no question about that. And we're always getting spotters to help us figure out what's actually happening out there."
Spotters also add credibility to warnings issued by the NWS.
"Now, what does that mean? For example, when we issue a tornado warning, the most common thing you'll hear it say something like 'the storm has rotation and could potentially produce a tornado,'" Lawson said. "What if we could put a warning out, and in that body text in the warning, you could say something like 'A large and destructive tornado has been reported and it's heading your way,' I think people would be much more likely to take action, quicker and go down in the basement or go into a secure room. So that's what we mean by adds credibility."
According to their website, "Since the storm spotter program started in the 1970s, the information provided by spotters, coupled with Doppler radar technology, improved satellite and other data, has enabled NWS to issue more timely and accurate warnings for tornadoes, severe thunderstorms and flash floods."
Also in his presentation, Lawson covered the basics of thunderstorm development, fundamentals of storm structure, how to identify potential weather features, how to report information to the NWS and basic severe weather safety.
Lawson said people can submit their storm reports in a number of ways. People can submit their severe weather reports via the NWS Wichita's Twitter page, Facebook page, on their website, or by calling 1 (800) 367-5736.
The NWS encourages anyone with an interest in public service to join the storm spotter program. Volunteers include police and fire personnel, dispatchers, EMS workers, public utility workers and other concerned private citizens.
Individuals affiliated with hospitals, schools, churches and nursing homes or who have a responsibility for protecting others are encouraged to become a spotter. Ready to learn more? Find a class in your area. Training is free and typically lasts about two hours.