By JOHN RICHARD SCHROCK
On May 17, the International Science Council (ISC) released a report providing three scenarios for what this pandemic might look like five years from now. The ISC is a worldwide non-governmental organization with headquarters in Paris, and is comprised of over 200 international scientific associations and regional academic and research councils. The report, “COVID-19: Unprecedented and Unfinished” was written by a panel of experts ranging from public health and virology to ethics and economics.
Three different scenarios are described, depending on whether nations around the world can succeed in improving vaccines and their distribution, and control the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. None of the three proposed outcomes for 2027 foresee total elimination.
In reading the report, it is necessary to understand the difference between an “endemic” disease that remains present in limited areas, such as malaria that resides in tropical regions, and an “epidemic” that spreads to a larger number of people in a region, such as the ebola epidemic in Africa. When an epidemic spreads to other continents, such as the Flu of 1918 that started in Fort Riley, Kansas and spread worldwide, it is a “pandemic.”
A “Collaboration Plus” scenario is the most positive outcome possible in 2027. In this forecast, “An overwhelming majority of the world’s population have received effective COVID-19 vaccine courses, and vaccines are updated as necessary to respond to new variants. Boosters are readily available due to improved manufacturing and distribution capacity. Equitable distribution of vaccines and antiviral agents reduces global inequality.” While health systems in poorer countries could still be overwhelmed by COVID-19 variant surges, developed countries would collaborate to aid them. But this optimistic outcome is viewed as unlikely, given countries’ current inward focus and failure to widely share vaccines and anti-virals. Nor have many countries succeeded in attaining vaccination of 80 percent or more of their eligible population.
A second “Continuity” scenario describes a 2027 where worldwide vaccination remains below 70 percent. Coronavirus variants continue to develop and remain endemic. “Vaccine-hesitant” groups remain a major barrier to achieving widespread immunity. And “...because of its biology including presence in non-human hosts, COVID-19 has become an endemic disease across the world.” Continuance of the pandemic will both reflect and cause “...disinformation, with a rise in populism and loss of social cohesion, creating broader political implications at both national and global levels.” The ISC teams see the damage of the prolonged pandemic as going far beyond medical losses, causing ongoing but limited economic, political and social harm.
The worst scenario is the “Missed Recovery” model where global vaccination never exceeds 60 percent and COVID-19 and its future variants remain uncontrolled. In this case, we face a “...world with declining societal conditions and increasing inequalities, arising from profoundly escalating geopolitical tensions, protectionist policies, and poor global and regional collaboration in response to the pandemic.” In a larger context, “Multilateralism is increasingly replaced by nationalism, with trade wars and technology wars becoming more intense. Disruptions to global trade and investment flows further depress global growth.” They predict that “combinations of negative impacts (climate change, education loss, unemployment, terrorism, political instability, loss of social cohesion) lead to famine and conflict in some parts of the world.”
Throughout this 110-page report, it is clear that the ISC does not consider that the East Asian ability to stop transmission by short-term, stand-in-place, pre-vaccine actions that were effective in ending the original SARS epidemic in 2003 workable in the wider world. Nor do they value the rapid cell phone tracing apps that likewise helped end the initial spread of COVID-19 in East Asia in 2020. Nor do they consider public science illiteracy as a factor in our current failure to control this ongoing pandemic.
If we consider these three scenarios to be grades A, C and F, many who read this report will consider us lucky to achieve a grade of D over the next five years.
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John Richard Schrock has trained biology teachers for more than 30 years in Kansas. He also has lectured at 27 universities during 20 trips to China. He holds the distinction of “Faculty Emeritus” at Emporia State University.
ScienceAlert summary of “COVID-19: Unprecedented and Unfinished” is at:
Here's How The Next 5 Years Might Look: Scientists Outline 3 Likely Pandemic Outcomes
The 110-page ISC: “COVID-19: Unprecedented and Unfinished” Report is at: The Report - Unprecedented & Unfinished: COVID-19 and Implications for National and Global Policy - International Science Council