By JOHN RICHARD SCHROCK
In a study just released from Georgetown University, China universities surpassed the U.S. in graduating science doctoral students back in 2007. Currently (data for 2019) the U.S. graduated 33,759 STEM PhD students while China graduated 49,498. In just a few more years, using the rates of growth in graduates pursuing research in STEM (science, technology, engineering, math and health sciences), we will produce 39,959 graduates in 2025 while China will produce 77,179.
In simpler terms, current Chinese universities graduate about three STEM doctoral researchers for every two graduated in America. However, by 2025, they calculate that China will produce twice as many per year.
However, a large number—about 42 percent–of U.S. university doctoral recipients are international students who were educated in foreign countries and came here for graduate training. This report by Georgetown’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) notes multiple studies that indicate that about three-fourths of foreign-born STEM PhD graduates have stayed in the U.S. for at least ten years. They bolster our science research.
If we only consider the American-born students trained in the U.S., then China will produce more than three times as many science doctorates as the U.S.—only 23,256 compared to China’s 77,179. However, in China only seven percent of their science doctorates go to foreign students, and there is no data on how many of this smaller number stay in China.
The current pandemic makes it difficult to measure exactly how many graduates are actually getting jobs in either country. There are other studies that indicate that approximately half of science doctoral recipients take jobs that do not require their research expertise. I have been critical of prior Georgetown reports that have considered any production of graduates that exceeds labor market demand to be a waste of educational effort. But the realities in both countries are that some students complete a doctorate in one field but find they prefer to work in another. To meet “labor market demand” you must have a surplus of personnel to draw from.
This change has occurred rapidly. The CSET report indicates: “In 2000, U.S. universities awarded twice as many doctorates in STEM fields as Chinese universities, but China surpassed the United States by 2007.” The report also notes that “Between 2003 and 2007...the government stood up more than 1,300 new PhD programs at dozens of institutions that had not previously offered doctoral programs.” This stands in contrast to the recent retrenching of many American public universities that have cut programs.
Quality of education is also an issue, and the CSET report does not take into consideration the growing number of questionable U.S. online doctoral degrees. In contrast, the report notes that a large share of this increase comes from the 42 “Double First Class” universities that are heavily funded by the Ministry of Education. These are the Chinese universities that are moving up in world rankings based on authorship of research, filing of patents, etc.
I previously reported how China surpassed the U.S. in authors of papers in science journals in 2017, and in number of international patents in 2019. It has taken China several decades to build up this educational capacity—literally an education revolution.
Meanwhile, general science literacy and interest in science in the U.S. has been dropping for over three decades. Half of Chinese bachelor’s degrees are in STEM compared to less than 18 percent in the United States. Our failure to teach enough science began in K–12 schools long ago, and it will not be solved unless we begin a similar educational revolution.
. . .
The Center for Security and Emerging Technology report is at:
https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/china-is-fast-outpacing-u-s-stem-phd-growth/
John Richard Schrock has trained biology teachers for more than 30 years in Kansas. He also has lectured at 27 universities in 20 trips to China. He holds the distinction of “Faculty Emeritus” at Emporia State University.