By JOHN RICHARD SCHROCK
Some citizens remember the extreme cold of February 2021 and our recent Winter Storm Elliott in December 2022, and dismiss global warming. But those were daily weather events. Climate is the cumulative effect of long term temperature changes. Averaged data on temperature readings have continuously risen over these last decades. “Climate Change Indicators in the United States” clearly show a rise in winter average temperatures and a decrease in heating degree days resulting in “the amount of natural gas used by the average American at home during the winter has decreased since 1974….”
Science is not based on opinion but on data analysis. Carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) are the major greenhouse gases. Leave your car windows closed on a cold but sunny winter day and you will find it warm inside your car, just as it is warmer inside greenhouses. Sunlight energy comes through the glass and is absorbed and converted to heat energy that is blocked by the glass. This is the greenhouse effect. No credible scientist disputes this effect that we can easily measure. And increases in methane or CO2 adds another layer to this insulating roof, keeping the earth warmer.
In 1957, a postdoc in geochemistry at Caltech, Charles David Keeling (1928-2005) designed a CO2 monitoring station and established it on Mauna Loa in Hawaii. Carbon dioxide levels go up and down each year as green vegetation absorbed CO2 in photosynthesis and released oxygen during the growing season. But Keeling’s analysis showed that this up-and-down cycle did not remain level but now progressed upward year-after-year. Today, many sites around the world generate Keeling graphs and no credible scientists dispute these results. CO2 levels were below 320 parts per million in 1960 but surpassed 420 ppm on May 31, 2022.
If CO2 production goes up, shouldn’t this increase plant photosynthesis, an effect called “CO2 fertilization”? A January 23, 2018 article in Scientific American summarized research that found the “CO2 fertilization effect” was limited by available nitrogen, and doubling CO2 from pre-industrial levels only boosted the productivity of wheat by 11.5% and corn by 8.4% percent, a very small benefit in production versus a huge problem in heat retention.
An earlier uncertainty before 1990 was the “heat island effect” where cities heat up more than countryside. Temperature stations historically sited outside of towns might show higher temperatures because the cities had grown out around them, pulling them into city heat islands. However, thermometer accuracy and placement have been improved and satellites now contribute accurate data worldwide. This rise is directly “felt” by nature, resulting in: 1) melting of glaciers and ice sheets, 2) thawing of permafrost progressing northward, and 3) changes in ocean currents and weather patterns.
The “Provisional State of the Climate Report 2022” by the World Meteorological Association finds “The past eight years are on track to be the eight warmest on record….” And “2022 took an exceptionally heavy toll on glaciers in the European Alps, with initial indications of record-shattering melt. The Greenland ice sheet lost mass for the 26th consecutive year and it rained (rather than snowed) there for the first time in September.”
The journal Science just reported the extent glaciers are melting and increasing sea level rise. Glaciers will lose from 26% to 41% of their mass by 2100 with 49% to 83% of glaciers disappearing, depending on the extent of warming. This will cause sea levels to rise 90 to 154 millimeters, depending on how much we suppress future greenhouse gases. The September issue of the Smithsonian Magazine likewise focused on Greenland and found that the “melting Greenland ice sheet will cause at least ten inches of sea-level rise.” This melting is well underway and reflects the spatial variability of global warming.
Finally, the Northern Sea Route is opening up a passage for increased shipping and new ports north of Russia and Canada. Both claim these shipping lanes are within their jurisdictions.
Climate change is no longer a case of scientist opinion but a solid case of data. Individuals can continue to deny the overwhelming facts, but their grandchildren will not be happy.
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Reports cited in this analysis include:
“Provisional State of the Climate Report 2022” is at: https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate
“Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters” from Science, January 5, 2023 is at: Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters
Climate Change Indicators in the United States is at: https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators
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John Richard Schrock has trained biology teachers for more than 30 years in Kansas. He also has lectured at 27 universities during 20 trips to China. He holds the distinction of “Faculty Emeritus” at Emporia State University.