By JOHN RICHARD SCHROCK
Much lower rates of influenza this winter appear to be due to pandemic precautions. A high rate of coronavirus infections in Brazil poses questions on herd immunity. And China sees some pandemic hotspots emerge as the Lunar New Year again approaches.
Medical doctors worried that the coronavirus pandemic would add casualties on top of the annual flu epidemic. But the January 15 issue of the journal Science reports that “U.S. clinical labs have collected 925 positive samples since the end of September 2020, versus 63,975 at this point in the 2019–20 flu season.” This rate, similar to the low flu transmission during the summer, is attributed to dramatically increased mask wearing, social distancing and travel restrictions. The CDC also noted that “adult vaccination climbed from 42% in 2019 to 53% in 2020.”
Far more concerning is a new report in the same issue of Science describing a nearly three-fourths infection rate in Manaus in the Brazilian Amazon. Data indicate that over seventy percent of that population has been infected by the coronavirus over the prior seven months. While there are many questions left to be answered, they note “this is above the theoretical herd immunity threshold.” In addition, it appears “...prior infection may not confer long-lasting immunity” although reports of reinfections are rare. If the data hold, herd immunity might require eighty to ninety percent levels of vaccination-plus-survivors. Such numbers may be difficult to achieve in France, the U.S. and countries with low science literacy and high vaccine hesitancy.
The same issue of Science also includes a summary of the dramatic amount of initial research into the coronavirus done by China. “The 10 most cited COVID-19 papers of the first six months of 2020, based on data from Elsevier’s Scopus database, all came from China....” explains Dennis Normille, their contributing correspondent in Shanghai, China. Wuhan’s Huazhong University of Science and Technology and Tongji Medical College each released over 400 research studies in the first six months. Before vaccines became available, “non-pharmaceutical interventions” including isolating patients with COVID-19, sealing the city, halting local travel, and imposing widespread quarantines were very effective and provided the evidence New Zealand would soon use to stop the pandemic as well.
China’s success overcoming widespread transmission also meant research on the disease and vaccinations would have to move elsewhere. Of the first eight vaccine candidates in the world, four were from China and three were standard “killed” virus vaccines. (Today there are many more.) Because China lacked enough potential transmission, they had to run Phase III trials in Brazil, Indonesia and the Middle East where transmission was great enough to show differences between vaccinated and placebo groups.
A small number of COVID-19 cases have continued to show up in China these last months. Some were in Beijing where travelers brought back the European strains. Some cases continued to occur in Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces where infections likely come from cross-border connections. However, a recent outbreak in Beijing was not related to travel, and a re-emergence of the coronavirus in Shijiazhuang, the capitol of Hebei province just south of Beijing has caused China to caution folks to reconsider extensive travel nationwide during the upcoming Lunar New Year beginning February 12.
While China has been able to return to normal with businesses and factory production back up and running, and likely to generate a two percent or more increase in year-over-year GDP, most Western countries will see substantial economic declines. But this return to near normal is not just in China, but also Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore. All share a Confucian-based heritage of “pragmatic collectivism.” This is why we have seen Asians wearing face masks every winter in large cities for decades. It is but a small part of the rule “do unto others as you wish them to do unto you” stated by Confucius over 500 years BC.
Meanwhile, despite vaccinations, masks and distancing are still critical for the near future. Our Western culture of “expressive individualism” holds back these effective responses to a pandemic, a pandemic that might never completely go away.
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John Richard Schrock has trained biology teachers for more than 30 years in Kansas. He also has lectured at 27 universities in 20 trips to China. He holds the distinction of “Faculty Emeritus” at Emporia State University.